After the draw with Atalanta, Celtic is predicted to at least make it to the play-off round, and a point in Bergamo has Celtic supporters dreaming of more Champions League glory nights. After the Scottish champions crushed Slovan Bratislava on the first day of the league phase campaign, Brendan Rodgers’ team bounced back from the thumping at the hands of Borussia Dortmund to grab a crucial point against the Europa League winners, bringing their total to four. Before facing Dinamo Zagreb, Young Boys, and Aston Villa, the Hoops will play back-to-back home games against RB Leipzig and Club Brugge in Glasgow’s east end.
Now the Opta supercomputer has stated that Celtic finishing the campaign with 11 points is the most likely scenario – with a 17.6 per chance of that being the final tally. And after a project that saw the boffins run a whopping 50,000 simulations it is stated that the Premiership leaders are most likely to finish in 22nd spot with a probability of 6.2 per cent.
That would be sufficient to guarantee Callum McGregor and company a place in the competition’s playoff round. While teams who position between ninth and twenty-fourth will advance to the playoffs, teams that place in the top eight of the league stage will automatically advance as seeded teams to the round of sixteen. To choose the eight teams that will participate in the round of 16 draw as unseeded teams, those teams will play each other.
Since UEFA distributes a staggering £733 million prize fund to its finest clubs, Celtic would receive a huge payout if they were to win the league round. Celtic received £15.7 million only for making it to the group stage, and they will receive £1.9 million for each league victory and £600,000 for a draw. The supercomputer predicts that two more victories and a tie should be possible to guarantee a total payout of £6.9 million.
On the basis of the final overall standings, the club will additionally receive a performance-related reward. Each share will start off worth £236K, with the lowest-ranked club receiving one share. However, as you move up the 36-team table, the value of each share increases (£236K x 36 means the top team will earn £8.4m). Celtic would be eligible for a £3.3 million bonus because they were anticipated to finish in 22nd place.
In addition, clubs that make it to the playoffs receive about £1 million for doing so. If they advance and make it to the round of 16, they will receive a £9.2 million bonus.
The Champions League revamp this season has also seen two additional changes to the payment structure with two new pillars used to distribute the rest of the wealth. The first one takes in the media market of the respective leagues and a modified five-year coefficient and is worth £540m – 75 per cent of the total share. The second is the non-European element – which factors in the old 10-year coefficient at a cost of £179m – which is the other 25 per cent of the distribution. Even if Celtic land in the bottom third in the European pillar and the non-European element they would still land a cool £6m.
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