What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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All times AEST.

 

1. Melbourne Suns (9-1, 154.7%)

Last week: First place, 52 point victory over Carlton

Swans supporters may still be wondering where their club is receiving so much attention, and with good reason—in an otherwise evenly matched season, they appear to be the undisputed top squad. One could argue, however, that it’s not a good idea to be the top team after ten rounds; in the previous ten seasons, only two teams—Collingwood (2023) and West Coast (2018)—who were at the top of the ladder at this point went on to win the flag. Regarding the disregard, what can I say? Let me just make a brief observation regarding the media: drama is what readers and authors both seek. Hence, the AFL pundits are constantly focusing on the most spectacular event of the previous weekend, be it an unexpected victory, a struggling team, or something else entirely. Being excellent and then staying good doesn’t make for exciting news, so the Swans’ next big victory—especially if it comes before the weekend and everyone has already gone on to other things—won’t make the papers. Furthermore, staying beneath the radar is quite acceptable. The Swans will have numerous hurdles in the second half of the season as clubs strive to outperform the top contender, but we anticipate that they won’t be going unnoticed for the remainder of the competition.

This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

 

2. COLLINGWOOD (6-3-1, 107.8%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Adelaide by 4 pts

It’s not like barely beating the Crows at the MCG is a massively impressive result, but it was another tick for the Magpies proving their game is back. Having led the AFL in points from halfback in 2023, they are second since Round 6 – they were all the way down in 16th from the start of the year until Round 5. Spinning the Jack Crisp magnet back into the midfield has worked wonders, and then you’ve got the oddity of Nick Daicos having what seemed like an incredible game against Adelaide but kinda wasn’t? Sure, he had 41 disposals, 22 contested possessions and 14 clearances – the latter two career-highs, proving he’s nothing like the outside-only player some critics claim he is. But he also went at a woeful 29% kicking efficiency, meaning it was the worst game of his career according to the AFL Player Ratings. Stats can lie, it turns out, if you use them incorrectly.

This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

 

 

3. ESSENDON (7-2-1, 103.3%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def North Melbourne by 40 pts

We don’t actually think the Bombers are the third-most likely to win the flag, or anything like that. But who the hell do you put third this week if not them? Melbourne and Geelong lost. Carlton and GWS are sliding. Port nearly lost to Hawthorn. Brisbane and the Bulldogs don’t have a winning record. So while long-time readers know we care more about the underlying numbers than a team’s win-loss record, we have to respect the results. The Bombers keep banking wins – and not in the same way they did late last year, when they nearly lost to a horrible West Coast and a horrible North. We’ve seen over the last three weeks the growth in this team, winning a tricky road test against a much-improved Eagles side (Melbourne just got comfortably beaten over there, remember) and showing maturity in pulling away from a brave Kangaroos outfit. The Bombers are at the very least good, and they’re gonna spend quite a bit of time in the top four on the ladder. We need a lot more data to believe in them as a proper contender.

This week: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 7:40pm

4. MELBOURNE (6-4, 113.1%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, def West Coast by 35 pts

Perhaps our sustained faith – to the extent that we’re keeping them in the top four – is unreasonable. After all their only impressive win over the past two months was over a Richmond side who have since looked horrendous; they narrowly beat Geelong, Port and Adelaide, but really their only convincing result over a contender all season was against the Bulldogs in Round 1. And your mileage will vary on whether the Bulldogs are a contender. They have been trying to change their game style but it isn’t really working and, bizarrely, the midfield has been a problem – why are they getting beaten by a Yeo-less West Coast? We still think the Demons’ floor is high enough that they can compete against pretty much everyone, even if they’re gonna have bad nights (and they’re almost always nights). They certainly had better beat St Kilda.

This week: St Kilda at the MCG, Sunday 3:20pm

 

 

5. PORT ADELAIDE (7-3, 111.1%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, def Hawthorn by 1 pt

Beating Hawthorn at home by the absolute barest of margins in a ridiculous comeback that never should’ve happened isn’t why they moved up three spots. It’s more about the context around them and the unimpressive nature of so many fellow finals contenders’ performances. That’s not to say the comeback wasn’t impressive – you don’t often win the contested possessions by 21 and the inside 50s by 19 in the space of a quarter. They came home with a fittingly wet sail and you could see the relief on Ken Hinkley’s face on the siren; those four points will prove critical in a tight top-eight race. After all they would’ve been 9th on the ladder with a loss; instead they’re fourth.

This week: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena, Saturday 1:45pm

 

 

6. GEELONG (7-3, 112.1%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, lost to Gold Coast by 64 pts

On one hand, that loss to the Suns was clearly a freak result in numerous ways. They didn’t enjoy the conditions (while their opponents both suited and had experience with them), they were severely understrength and things got out of hand late. It will almost certainly be Geelong’s worst game of the year. But at the same time, that’s three straight losses and they look nowhere near as defensively sound as we saw over their opening seven games. They are a bottom three side in points against from turnovers and scores per inside 50 against over the last month; that is not sustainable for a top eight contender, never mind a top-four contender. They should win most home games, so they certainly should beat a similarly out-of-form GWS side on Saturday… but it’s the battle of the should-be-betters.

This week: GWS Giants at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

 

 

7. BRISBANE LIONS (4-5-1, 116.6%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, def Richmond by 119 pts

We’re not taking much out of Saturday night against the Tigers (or what was left of them). Still, the percentage boost was nice, if only relevant against a few teams. And it was a nice chance to shake off the cobwebs from the early season home losses; they should have their confidence back at this point. They’re still not the version of Brisbane that made a Grand Final, not with their injuries, but they’re definitely good enough to challenge most teams – and beat them at their best. Let’s hope they don’t stumble again against the Hawks, because then they get the bye then a fascinating Friday night road trip to face the Dogs (who are similarly dangerous yet outside the eight), then St Kilda at home. A 7-5-1 record is well within reach, from which point you only need to split your remaining games 5-5 to probably play finals. Don’t count them out.

This week: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

 

 

8. FREMANTLE (6-4, 111.8%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, def St Kilda by 17 pts

They’re not going to kick 11.33 over a two-week block again – they just won’t. The Dockers’ utterly bizarre inaccuracy, which has them something like 12 goals under their expected score over the last fortnight, has disguised a very solid block of form. They were much closer to Sydney than the margin suggested and controlled the game against St Kilda, pulling away late for the deserved win. Want a reason why they’ve been so wayward? They haven’t recorded a single shot from 0-15 metres out over the last two weeks. No goals out the back here! They will remember where the big sticks are soon – we reckon in time to beat the high-flying Pies and announce themselves again as a threat on the Friday night stage.

This week: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (5-5, 126.1%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, def GWS by 27 pts

Are the Bulldogs actually good? Their percentage being second-best is a bit of a mirage, pumped up by a few massive wins – their average winning margin is a staggering 60 points and should be even higher after kicking 8.22 against GWS. But we always say big wins are the sign of a great team, and while the Giants aren’t flying right now, it was still very comfortable and easily the Dogs’ most impressive win of the season. Some of the footy nerds we follow have the Bulldogs as a top-four team right now; we’re not willing to go that far because we can’t trust them against the top teams. Speaking of the top teams… look, there would be no shame in losing to Sydney. But if the Dogs win on Thursday night, and everyone starts talking about them as a threat, just remember that we flagged it first.

This week: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

 

 

10. CARLTON (6-4, 102.1%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, lost to Sydney by 52 pts

The Blues are fine. We also had to put them 10th this week, because the race for the eight is really, really open. The Sydney loss was their first properly bad one for the year – and yes, they’ve lost three of their last four, but they’ve had a bloody tough run. The most important thing is getting players back; like with Richmond we cannot underestimate the impact of injuries, especially with the lack of options at certain positions meaning they can’t play the way they should be. And the draw over the next month isn’t great; after the Suns, they get Port away, then Essendon and Geelong at the MCG. But things seriously open up after their bye so we think it’s very likely they’re going to storm home – six games between Rounds 16 and 24 are against bottom-ten teams – and head into September with lots of momentum.

This week: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

11. GWS GIANTS (6-4, 115.5%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 27 pts

This may seem a severe fall for a team being talked up as a premiership contender just a few weeks ago, but the Giants are seriously pedestrian right now. That margin against the Dogs should have been much larger and the difference between the Giants of the opening six weeks, and the five since, is stark. They’ve gone from 1st to 13th in points scored; 2nd to 10th in scores per inside 50; 1st to 11th in points from turnovers; and 1st to 15th in transitioning from their back half to inside 50. That latter one is the key – it is the orange tsunami totally disappearing. Combine that with their defensive decline we wrote about last week and GWS, right now, is a bang-average team at best. We know they can play much better than this, so maybe it’s just a long lapse, but this is a big enough sample size to start being concerned.

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

 

 

12. ADELAIDE CROWS (3-6-1, 100.9%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, lost to Collingwood by 4 pts

Well, the Crows really are back in 2023 form, because they copped a heartbreaking loss to Collingwood decided by a kick with a controversial late umpiring call involved. Three wins out of the eight, it’s going to be difficult to recover and play finals… but they’re about to go on a run, and we are certain they’re good enough. Not good enough to contend for the flag, but Adelaide can absolutely beat most teams on their day – heck they almost beat one of the most in-form teams in the comp away on the weekend. With West Coast, Hawthorn and Richmond over the next three weeks, they should be 6-6-1, and looking at their run home they can certainly get to 12 and a half wins. But everything would need to go right and we know how tricky a position that can be.

This week: West Coast Eagles at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4:40pm

 

 

13. GOLD COAST SUNS (6-4, 112.7%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, def Geelong by 64 pts

It would be very reasonable to ask why Gold Coast isn’t higher. As always we would respond with ‘which team would you have below them?’, because one amazing game in unusual conditions against a contender well below its best doesn’t prove to us that the Suns are ready to make the eight. They’re still in the mix and this is where their season gets interesting – because they either have to keep beating good teams at home, or keep winning away, to play finals. They’ve got Essendon, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne left at home; all winnable if they’re at their best but clearly loseable games. Their much more beatable opponents, like St Kilda, North Melbourne, West Coast and Richmond all have to be played away, making those games just that much more difficult. So there’s a path to September here, no doubt; it’s just a path they haven’t gone down before. They are the last team in this ranking we can realistically see making the eight.

This week: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

 

14. EAGLES OF THE WEST COAST (3–7, 77.1%)

Last week: Beat Melbourne by 35 points when ranked 16th.

Even six weeks ago, we couldn’t claim to have predicted that West Coast would not be among our lowest four. However, they have actually turned back into a dangerous club at home, so opponents who must travel to Optus Stadium will be wishing they could play the Eagles there. Heck, Adam Simpson’s team might go as low as 5-8 very soon, given they host North Melbourne and St Kilda at home after travelling to play Adelaide. At that point, we’d have to write about their slim finals chances in The Run Home! Add in the westward migration of Hawthorn and Gold Coast, and this is a seven- or eight-win season. It’s debatable if that’s what’s best for their future.

Adelaide Crows this week at Adelaide Oval on Sunday at 4:40 p.m.

15. HAWTHORN (78.6%, 3–7)

Previously: Finished 15th, dropped to Port Adelaide by 1 point

Sam Mitchell noted at his news conference following the game that it is difficult to see any silver lining in a result as dismal as Sunday’s. Naturally, in the long run, that defeat was the best outcome for the team—you want to demonstrate as much as you can while also securing the highest draft pick. The Hawks also demonstrated a great deal versus Port, controlling every aspect of the game for three quarters before ending the game way too soon. This year, it’s been a frequent occurrence; consider Port Adelaide’s close loss to Geelong and Carlton’s close loss to Melbourne. However, there are still many valuable lessons to be learned from the game, one of them being that Blake Hardwick makes a tonne of sense as a forward—apparently especially when he’s playing in Adelaide. Additionally, the midfield is getting better; in the previous five weeks, they have led the AFL in post-clearance contested possessions and groundballs, which is an important aspect of the game.

This Sunday at 1:10 PM, Marvel Stadium will host the Brisbane Lions.

 

16. ST KILDA (3-7, 94.1%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Fremantle by 17 pts

Yuck. That’s the only word we can use to describe this Saints season. Yuck. Since that brilliant win over Collingwood at the MCG, which had everyone excited for their youth and exuberance, they’ve won just twice – over the inarguable two worst teams in the competition, Richmond and North Melbourne. It’s like they’re speedrunning the Ross Lyon experience because last year was a great defence carrying a pedestrian offence into the finals (like plenty of Saints seasons and the early Freo years), while this year is an OK defence plus a woeful offence dragging them down (like the late Freo years). It’s never a good sign when the conversation around one of last year’s finalists is purely about who they can trade for at Round 10…

This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 3:20pm

 

17. RICHMOND (1-9, 59.6%)

Previously: Ranked 17th, defeated by Brisbane by 119 points

After losing two games by a combined total of more than 200 points, the Tigers’ only explanation for not being ranked 18th is that these outcomes are wholly inaccurate to their actual level of skill. When fully fit, they are an OK to middling team, as demonstrated by their upset victory over Sydney and their tight losses to Carlton and Port Adelaide. Their injury woes are truly West Coast proportions, and while we totally get why the rest of the football media is criticising the players and/or coach in an attempt to figure out why they’re performing so poorly, there are instances when the answer is rather straightforward. Just look at how much better West Coast looks now that it has a fit list! Because of injuries, which are a major concern, the Tigers are expected to be excited on Saturday night. We would rate the lists as close to possible, so if Richmond and Essendon were both fully fit, it might be a competitive game. It’s only that the truth is extremely different.

This week: Saturday @ 7:40 p.m., Edendon at the MCG

18. 56.8% of North Melbourne (0–10)

Previously: Ranked 18th, dropped 40 points to Essendon

All we can hope for, given the kangaroos’ current low status, is some indications of recovery. We achieved it on Sunday, putting on a very excellent midfield display against a formidable Essendon opposition team. The Roos set season-highs in hitouts to advantage (+6) and clearances (+14) at stoppages, and their ball control (+22 uncontested possessions and 108 uncontested marks) was the second-best it has been all year. Additionally, they haven’t typically been competitive throughout the entire game, which they did. Once more, it’s a thing.

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