On Sunday, October 6, 2024, in the fourth quarter, Marlon Humphrey, a defensive back for the Baltimore Ravens, intercepts a ball from Joe Burrow.
In fact, statistically, Lamar Jackson is outperforming his own MVP campaign from the previous season, demonstrating that he is having yet another season of MVP calibre. All season long, the Baltimore Ravens’ offence has been thriving under Lamar. They now lead in rushing with an almost unachievable average of 191.9 yards per game and rank third in passing with an average of 254 yards per game. Derrick Henry, a potential Hall of Famer, has strengthened an already strong rushing attack to the point where it is practically unbeatable.
Joe Burrow, meanwhile, has recovered from a rough start.Burrow is back to his former self after recovering from a wrist injury that probably limited his physical prowess during the first two weeks, as evidenced by his five touchdowns in last week’s Bengals victory. The Bengals’ running assault has fallen far short of expectations, ranking 27th in the NFL with just 94.2 yards per game, but Burrow has guided the team to a top 10 passing offence, ranking 7th with 236.3 yards per game.
All season long, the legendary Ravens defence has been a Jekyll and Hyde show. The Purple Wall is ranked first against the run, giving up a pitiful 75.7 yards per game, but they are dead last in passing defence, giving up 280.9 yards per game. The Bengals have played in the middle of the road all season, while the Ravens have been a tale of two types. They are ranked 17th against the rush and 18th against the pass, respectively.
Looking at recent trends can offer some intriguing insight into predicting the game, especially because we have an AFC North matchup between two teams that are very familiar with one another. In the regular season, the Ravens and Bengals have faced off 58 times, with the Ravens winning 31 of those meetings. It’s interesting to note that the Ravens have a 7-3 record against the spread in their previous 10 games and a 5-0 record against the spread. Baltimore supporters have profited greatly from Harbaugh and company. Many AFC North games tend to be slugfests with a focus on the big uglies up front because of the division and the team’s longstanding defence reputation. All five of the previous games, though, have exceeded the amount. Recently, Burrow and Jackson, two of the best quarterbacks in the game, have demonstrated that offence can win out over defence.
The Forecast
Considering the patterns, it would appear wise to make a blind prediction that the Ravens will cover and the game will surpass the total. On closer inspection, though, the margin has not been as big as -6 in games where Burrow was healthy. In a similar vein, the game total in the last five meetings has not exceeded 49. With a 53-point total, the Ravens are 6 point favourites in this week’s contest. In particular, I believe the Ravens’ #1-ranked rush defence will shut down the Bengals’ weak running assault, making the offence of the Bengals predictable. Although I don’t think the Ravens can totally stop Burrow and Chase, I do think they can force longer, more deliberate drives and take away big plays because of the offense’s predictability and the teams’ familiarity. Conversely, Lamar has spent the majority of the year taking time off from practices in order to rest and recuperate during the week. I anticipate that the Ravens will rely more on their rushing assault because this game is short notice and Lamar will have less time to recover. It is rarely a terrible idea to strap a game plan to the beast that is Derrick Henry. My favourite play in this game is the under because I believe the Bengals will be forced into lengthier and more time-consuming drives, and the Ravens may be happy to run the ball and the clock. Although I am aware of the powerful offences, I am rather certain that the game will be competitive but low scoring given the short week, the divisional opponent, and the particular matchup.
Under 53 is the best bet.
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