Brisbane just needs to look back a year to see that its season still has a lot of life left in it.

Similar to the Lions’ present situation, Carlton was mired in 13th place after 11 games in 2023 with four wins, one tie, and six losses. Same ladder place, same win total.

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Even worse off, Greater Western Sydney had a 14th place ranking, four wins, seven defeats, and an 87 percent percentage.

Both sides then dropped their subsequent games, with Carlton losing the following one, before exploding into their respective preliminary finals.

Sydney, who only managed to win five of its first 13 games before reaching September and losing to Carlton in an elimination final, was another club that was far behind schedule at this point in the previous season.

Coach Chris Fagan of Brisbane has already mentioned those remarkable turnarounds, but will his team’s performance in 2024 be sufficient to repeat them?

What’s gone wrong?

This question lacks a single, straightforward response.

Brisbane’s delayed start to the season may have been somewhat due to the fact that it played in the Opening Round earlier than normal and made the Grand Final, which gave them a few more weeks of preparation over other teams. However, this is not the only reason.

Keidean Coleman’s damaged ACL just before halftime of the first game against Carlton was devastating to the squad’s long-term prospects, in addition to being unsettling for his teammates to witness at the time. Injuries have been a major concern for the team.

Coleman, who had just finished an incredible finals performance, was credited with creating Brisbane’s ball movement from the defensive half with his nimble and accurate left-foot kicking.

Therefore, is this, at least in part, the cause of the difficulties experienced by a considerable number of people—whom we’ll speak about later—in locating their optimal form?

Perhaps there isn’t the same intense drive to run one more rep, lift one more weight, lay one more block for a teammate, or sprint one more time down the wing without getting the ball to create space for a teammate because no team has regularly gone as far into September as the Lions have done since 2019.

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The system can be brought down with the slightest deviation from three or four players.

The players alone are able to measure their level of desperation at all times, but Sunday’s loss to Hawthorn served as a reminder that their effort and intensity were falling short of what was required.

Causes for hope?

There are still 12 games left, and although time is starting to matter, there are still many chances to go to the finals and beyond.

To get into the top eight, the Lions will probably need to win eight or maybe nine games.

They play six teams in the top eight on the current table, four of which are at the Gabba. Put another way, they have a chance to succeed if they can simulate the calibre of play attained during the majority of 2023 and some of 2024.

Prior to the bye, Bailey recovered from an ankle injury, and Starcevich is expected to return the following week against St Kilda or immediately after against the Western Bulldogs.

Furthermore, the team anticipates that Will Ashcroft will return from his knee reconstruction sometime between round 16 and round 18, which is even more positive.

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Brisbane’s chances are greatly increased if these players perform at their peak, which is unreasonable to ask from Ashcroft after a 12-month absence from the pitch.

Nevertheless, some valuable insights have emerged from the season’s frustrations thus far. Fagan has had little incentive to experiment with the talent below him because the team has been so well-established and successful over the last five years.

It’s been different this year.

Kai Lohman deserves to play every week because he has shown he is prepared to make an impact at the AFL level. Bruce Reville has demonstrated his ability and has the potential to make a significant impact with his right foot kick.

Huge ticks go to Ryan Lester and Darcy Wilmot as well; Josh Dunkley has been reliable, and Jarrod Berry and Jack Payne have been excellent after poor starts.

The players at the next rank are the ones that require form. and quickly.

Since joining the Lions from Adelaide, Charlie Cameron has been the best small forward in the league, but this season, he is completely underappreciated.

Even if his current goal total of 18 is not bad, his obvious lack of polish and finishing is what is so shocking considering that he has kicked 50 or more goals in four of the previous five seasons.

This season, Cameron’s conversion rate is merely 42%, compared to 58%, 59%, and 54% over the previous three years. The Lions must see him again since his enthusiasm and smile are contagious.

Cam Rayner performs even worse as usual. After placing fifth in the best and fairest last year, the former No. 1 draft pick is currently in his eighth season and is poised to make a significant move.

It has been a significant regression. With the exception of two or three additional cameos, Rayner has not had much of an influence this season, despite being the best player on the pitch in the Lions’ most convincing victory over Melbourne.

A mere eight goals in eleven games is not the whole picture. It’s reasonable to wonder if the endearing 24-year-old will realise his obvious potential. We’ve hardly seen the rundown tackle, the crumb-and-snap-around-the-body, or the massive block to free up a teammate in 2024—all of which are actions that uplift people around him.

Though they frequently find themselves under fire, Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood haven’t done anything to quell criticism thus far.

Daniher is currently much behind the level he was attained in the 44-man All-Australian squad from the previous year. Not only is his inaccurate goalkicking (41%), which is lower than it was two years ago (53 and 52%), but he also engages in disputed marking.

He only has six contested marks this season, compared to 44 last season, when he was ranked in the top 10.

Hipwood, who missed the Hawks game due to suspension, puts in a lot of grunt effort with his up-and-back running and long kick contests along the boundary line, but he hasn’t had enough opportunities to have an individual impact or involve his teammates in the game.

One of the most well-known free agents in the competition, Hugh McCluggage, is out of contract and hasn’t always played at his best, but Bailey, Starcevich, and Conor McKenna would all like to see more from themselves.

Brisbane has the best inside-50 differential in the league, but their below-average outputs have been caused by a combination of careless ball movement, personal difficulties forward of the ball, and poor goalkicking.

So, will Brisbane continue to perform as they did a year ago against Carlton, GWS, and Sydney, or will they falter and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2018?